Land and Forest Fires Alert

This study is a synthesis of the series of Land and Forest Fires Vulnerability Studies Volume 1 and Volume 2 which were published as an effort to encourage and evaluate corrective steps in policies and actions taken by the government in tackling land and forest fires. In addition, 2023 will enter the period of the El Nino climate anomaly cycle which causes Indonesia to experience a long drought. The threat of forest and land fires at the 2023 KHG is a serious problem because Pantau Gambut found that 2.5 million hectares of peat land within the PHU in Indonesia are at high level of vulnerability. In other words, the extreme destruction of peatlands followed by the release of emissions and chemicals into the atmosphere will endanger the entire ecological and social order on earth.

Based on this report, the summary of all the discussed sections is as follows:

Vulnerability models were created using weight and score analysis with regression modeling.
Regions categorized as having vulnerability to forest and land fires are those with high and medium vulnerability classes, while regions with low vulnerability class are excluded. Out of the total 24.2 million hectares of PHU in Indonesia, approximately 16.4 million hectares fall under high and medium vulnerability classes.
Around 2.5 million hectares out of the total 3.8 million hectares in the high vulnerability class, accounting for about 65.9% of the high vulnerability, are located in peatland areas within PHU.
Using the proportion or percentage analysis between the area of high vulnerability and the total PHU area, the Sungai Ifuleki Bian-Sungai Dalik PHU in South Papua Province has the highest proportion of vulnerability to forest and land fires (approximately 97% of the area in the Sungai Ifuleki Bian-Sungai Dalik PHU is categorized as high vulnerability).
The Peatland Hydrological Unit (PHU) of Sungai Kahayan-Sungai Sebangau in Central Kalimantan Province holds the largest extent of high-class forest and land fire vulnerability in the year 2023, covering an area of approximately 190 thousand hectares.
The Peatland Hydrological Unit (PHU) of Sungai Rokan-Sungai Siak Kecil, as the largest PHU in Indonesia, exhibits a moderate vulnerability of 53%, encompassing an area of around 438 thousand hectares. This PHU also includes areas with high-class vulnerability, totaling 78 thousand hectares or approximately 9% of its total area.
Based on the integration of PHU area data and provincial administrative regions, Central Kalimantan Province emerges as the province with the widest extent of high-class land and forest fires vulnerability within PHU areas in Indonesia in 2023.
Approximately 54% of the 3.8 million hectares at risk of high forest and land fires vulnerability (high-class vulnerability) in 2023 within PHU areas are situated within concession areas and their surrounding zones.
Concessions with HGU and HTI permits represent the concessions with the highest percentage located in high-class vulnerability areas.
PT Sangkowong Sinta in Central Kalimantan Province and PT Bumi Sriwijaya Sentosa in South Sumatra Province are the two companies with the largest extent of severe forest and land fires vulnerability in 2023 within PHU areas burdened with HGU permits.
PT Bumi Mekar Hijau in South Sumatra Province is the company with the widest extent of severe forest and land fires vulnerability in 2023 within PHU areas burdened with HGU permits.
The Sungai Kahayan-Sungai Sebangau PHU is the PHU burdened by HGU permits with the largest high vulnerability to forest and land fires in 2023.
The Sungai Sugihan-Sungai Lumpur PHU is the PHU burdened by IUPHHK permits with the largest high vulnerability to forest and land fires in 2023.
Central Kalimantan Province and West Kalimantan Province are the provinces responsible for the PHUs burdened by HGU concessions with the largest high vulnerability in the PHUs with concessions.
Central Kalimantan Province, Riau Province, and South Sumatera Province are the three provinces responsible for the PHUs burdened by IUPHHK permits with the largest high vulnerability to forest and land fires in 2023.
The main oceanic and atmospheric variables are currently consistent with the development of El Nino. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC-NOAA) shows that in May 2023 (AMJ), the probability of El Nino occurrence is around 40% and increases significantly in June 2023 (MJJ) to 80%.
The transition from ENSO-neutral is expected to occur in the coming months, with a probability of more than 90% that El Nino will persist until the winter in the Northern Hemisphere (December–March).
Based on the historical occurrence of forest and land fires in Indonesia, forest and land fires generally occurs in February to March, followed by July to October.
Pantau Gambut found a total of 5,030 hotspots during the months of January to May 2023.
Pantau Gambut identified potential occurrences of forest and land fires in PHU areas at 29 locations during January to May 2023. Out of these 29 locations, 10 locations were observed only in May. This indicates that after entering the dry season and El Nino phase, the vulnerability to forest and land fires in Indonesia is increasing.
Dumai City and Bengkalis Regency have the highest number of forest and land fires occurrences throughout January to May 2023.
The Sungai Rokan–Sungai Siak Kecil PHU also stands out as the PHU with the highest number of hotspots in Indonesia during the period from January to May 2023.
PHUs that have a historical record of past fires and are being utilized for other purposes such as food estates or even concessions, should be restored to their original function as sustainable peatland ecosystems.